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High-dimensional Many-to-many-to-many Mediation Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study high-dimensional mediation analysis in which exposures, mediators, and outcomes are all multivariate, and both exposures and mediators may be high-dimensional. We formalize this as a many (exposures)-to-many (mediators)-to-many (outcomes) (MMM) mediation analysis problem. Methodologically, MMM mediation analysis simultaneously performs variable selection for high-dimensional exposures and mediators, estimates the indirect effect matrix (i.e., the coefficient matrices linking exposure-to-mediator and mediator-to-outcome pathways), and enables prediction of multivariate outcomes. Theoretically, we show that the estimated indirect effect matrices are consistent and element-wise asymptotically normal, and we derive error bounds for the estimators. To evaluate the efficacy of the MMM mediation framework, we first investigate its finite-sample performance, including convergence properties, the behavior of the asymptotic approximations, and robustness to noise, via simulation studies. We then apply MMM mediation analysis to data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative to study how cortical thickness of 202 brain regions may mediate the effects of 688 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (selected from approximately 1.5 million SNPs) on eleven cognitive-behavioral and diagnostic outcomes. The MMM mediation framework identifies biologically interpretable, many-to-many-to-many genetic-neural-cognitive pathways and improves downstream out-of-sample classification and prediction performance. Taken together, our results demonstrate the potential of MMM mediation analysis and highlight the value of statistical methodology for investigating complex, high-dimensional multi-layer pathways in science. The MMM package is available at https://github.com/THELabTop/MMM-Mediation.



Reusable Slotwise Mechanisms

Neural Information Processing Systems

However, achieving this capability necessitates not only an effective scene representation but also an understanding of the mechanisms governing interactions among object subsets. Recent studies have made significant progress in representing scenes using object slots.


Reusable Slotwise Mechanisms

Neural Information Processing Systems

However, achieving this capability necessitates not only an effective scene representation but also an understanding of the mechanisms governing interactions among object subsets. Recent studies have made significant progress in representing scenes using object slots.





Simulation-based Methods for Optimal Sampling Design in Systems Biology

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many areas of systems biology, including virology, pharmacokinetics, and population biology, dynamical systems are commonly used to describe biological processes. These systems can be characterized by estimating their parameters from sampled data. The key problem is how to optimally select sampling points to achieve accurate parameter estimation. Classical approaches often rely on Fisher information matrix-based criteria such as A-, D-, and E-optimality, which require an initial parameter estimate and may yield suboptimal results when the estimate is inaccurate. This study proposes two simulation-based methods for optimal sampling design that do not depend on initial parameter estimates. The first method, E-optimal-ranking (EOR), employs the E-optimal criterion, while the second utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. Simulation studies based on the Lotka-Volterra and three-compartment models demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform both random selection and classical E-optimal design.


What to Do in San Francisco If You're Here for Business (2025)

WIRED

A tech industry insider's guide to where to stay, eat, work, and play while visiting the tech scene's mothership, San Francisco. All products featured on WIRED are independently selected by our editors. However, we may receive compensation from retailers and/or from purchases of products through these links. You've probably read plenty of recent news stories about how San Francisco is a failed city. Our infrastructure is crumbling, our streets are scary, our social fabric is torn and frayed. Most of that stuff is false. Yes, San Francisco has issues, but they're the same problems nearly all US cities are facing as they struggle to reorient themselves to our new, post-pandemic economic reality. The "doom loop" narrative that's often repeated in the national press is a gross exaggeration. The truth is that San Francisco is thriving.


Dendrograms of Mixing Measures for Softmax-Gated Gaussian Mixture of Experts: Consistency without Model Sweeps

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a unified statistical framework for softmax-gated Gaussian mixture of experts (SGMoE) that addresses three long-standing obstacles in parameter estimation and model selection: (i) non-identifiability of gating parameters up to common translations, (ii) intrinsic gate-expert interactions that induce coupled differential relations in the likelihood, and (iii) the tight numerator-denominator coupling in the softmax-induced conditional density. Our approach introduces Voronoi-type loss functions aligned with the gate-partition geometry and establishes finite-sample convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In over-specified models, we reveal a link between the MLE's convergence rate and the solvability of an associated system of polynomial equations characterizing near-nonidentifiable directions. For model selection, we adapt dendrograms of mixing measures to SGMoE, yielding a consistent, sweep-free selector of the number of experts that attains pointwise-optimal parameter rates under overfitting while avoiding multi-size training. Simulations on synthetic data corroborate the theory, accurately recovering the expert count and achieving the predicted rates for parameter estimation while closely approximating the regression function. Under model misspecification (e.g., $ε$-contamination), the dendrogram selection criterion is robust, recovering the true number of mixture components, while the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the integrated completed likelihood tend to overselect as sample size grows. On a maize proteomics dataset of drought-responsive traits, our dendrogram-guided SGMoE selects two experts, exposes a clear mixing-measure hierarchy, stabilizes the likelihood early, and yields interpretable genotype-phenotype maps, outperforming standard criteria without multi-size training.